Vietnam’s exports in 2012 are expected to grow by 13 percent with total turnover exceeding US$100 billion for the first time. This is no easy task for the sector to achieve this target set by the second session of the 13th National Assembly.
Growth challenges
Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang recently pointed out three major difficulties facing Vietnam’s exports. First, the prices of agro-forestry-fishery products, materials, and minerals are unlikely to rise further. Second, the global economic crisis may lead to a fall in consumer demand. Third, domestic challenges may also prevent the expansion of production and business.
Minister Hoang urged export sector to carefully consider the impact of the European debt crisis on Vietnam’s exports to the market. He noted that as a result of the 2009 global financial crisis, Vietnam’s export turnover decreased by 8.9 percent (exports to the EU dropped sharply by 13.7 percent, while those to the US - the centre of the crisis by just 4.3 percent).
Most of Vietnam’s current exports to the EU are essential products which are most likely to go down in price although demand is still buoyant.
Minister Hoang described the US as a potential market making up 19-20 percent of Vietnam’s export turnover. However some multinational groups are joining forces to prevent Vietnamese goods from entering the US market. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses are easily subject to lawsuits at any time.
Which products see the sharpest increase?
It is expected that the three main groups of products from agricultural, mining, and processing industries will give a boost to exports.
However, the agricultural and mineral production has reached saturation point and there may be a slight growth of 3.6 percent to US$20.2 billion, accounting for 18.6 percent of total export earnings. Seafood is estimated to take the lead with US$6.7 billion (up 8 percent), followed by rice with US$3.5 billion (down 2 percent), and coffee with US$2.6 billion (up 1.5 percent).
Meanwhile, mineral products for export will be likely to rise by 7.7 percent to US$12 billion, making up 11.1 percent of total turnover.
The processing industry, known as the spearhead of the export sector, is estimated to contribute US$67.5 billion, or 62.2 percent (up 16.7 percent) with garment items rising by 16 percent to US$16.5 billion.
Thanks to the expansion of markets, footwear exports will be able to grow by 14 percent to US$7.3 billion in 2012.
Wood products, which have recently gained an important position in Vietnam’s export structure, are expected to increase by 11 percent to US$4.3 billion, and electronic items and computer spare parts to see a sharp increase of 18 percent to US$5 billion, especially when major foreign-invested projects get off the ground.
Source: VOV/VNA